Photo: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images
There’s not much question that the brutal immigration-enforcement tactics on display in Minneapolis and elsewhere have roiled U.S. politics. The resulting furor produced a partial government shutdown, and Trump himself seems wrong-footed by the world-wide backlash to scenes of masked thugs attacking immigrants, protesters, and bystanders alike.
But it’s a little more difficult to measure how much this has affected Donald Trump’s own public standing. Renee Good was killed by an ICE agent on January 7. Alex Pretti was killed by Border Control agents on January 24. Using the polling averages at Silver Bulletin, we see that Trump’s overall net job-approval rating stood at minus-12.2 percent on January 6 and dropped to minus-14.6 percent by the end of the month (it’s at minus-14.4 percent on February 11). The percentage of Americans strongly disapproving of Trump’s job performance has increased to a second-term high of 46.2 percent (24.1 percent strongly approve, which is near the second-term low of 23.8 percent). As usual, the mix of pollsters releasing data in this period puts various thumbs on scales. Readings on Trump’s net job-approval range from Insider Advantage, whose February 1 survey pegged it at 1 percent, to Pew Research, which placed it at minus-24 percent as of January 26.
Looking at post-shootings job-approval trends for specific pollsters is tough, since few have released multiple surveys in January or February. Morning Consult’s tracking poll shows little change. Nor did Economist/YouGov, which pegged Trump’s net job approval at minus-16 percent on January 26 and minus-17 percent on February 9. Interestingly, one of Trump’s favorite polling outlets, Rasmussen Reports, showed his net approval dropping to a second-term low of minus-16 percent on February 5, before rebounding somewhat to minus-9 percent as of February 11.
Silver Bulletin maintains separate averages for polling on Trump’s job approval with respect to particular issues. The immigration trend has been downward (if unevenly so) since June. Net job approval on immigration was at minus-3.8 percent as recently as December 10. It fell all the way to minus-12.4 percent on January 26 and is now at minus-11.1 percent. It’s been clear for quite some time that what was once Trump’s strongest issue area is now another problem for him, albeit not as severe as perceptions he is mishandling the economy. His net job approval on the economy is minus-16.7 percent, and on handling inflation is minus-25.2 percent, though both numbers were worse at the end of 2025.
A few recent polls that conduct deeper dives on immigration policy tell us much more about the impact of immigration-enforcement atrocities. The Economist/YouGov survey from February 2 is particularly nuanced. Fifty percent of Americans say Trump’s approach to immigration policy is “too harsh,” 8 percent say it’s “too soft,” and 36 percent say it’s “about right.” Democrats and Republicans are sharply polarized on the question, as usual, and 54 percent of independents say Trump’s approach is “too harsh.” The “too harsh” percentage rises to 58 percent among Hispanics. Sixty-three percent of Americans, and even 35 percent of Republicans, oppose deportation of illegal immigrants “who have lived in the U.S. for many years without committing any crimes.” Sizable majorities favor a raft of restrictions on ICE agents. Perhaps most tellingly, 53 percent of Americans agree, and only 24 percent disagree, with the statement that “Alex Pretti was wrongfully executed by immigration agents.”
A February 2 Quinnipiac poll shows 62 percent of registered voters think the shooting of Alex Pretti was unjustified, while only 22 percent call it justified. More generally, 63 percent of registered voters disapprove of “the way ICE is enforcing immigration laws,” while 34 percent approve.
Most recently, a February 6 NBC News Decision Desk survey of registered voters showed “49% of adults strongly disapprove of how Trump has handled border security and immigration, up from 38% strong disapproval last summer and 34% in April.” And a February 9 GBAO poll, also of registered voters, focused on perceptions of Democratic demands for ICE reforms. By a margin of 52 percent to 36 percent, respondents favored withholding DHS funding until ICE is reformed. And support for the individual demands Democrats have made with respect to ICE ranges from a low of 63 percent (allowing private lawsuits against ICE agents) to a high of 75 percent (requiring ICE participation in state and local investigations into potential violations of rights).
How the administration handles immigration enforcement going forward will determine how much residual damage the events in Minneapolis have damaged public support for ICE, mass deportation, and Trump himself. But Americans are definitely paying attention now.
