Posted on: February 24, 2026, 08:40h.
Last updated on: February 24, 2026, 08:40h.
- Senators demand CFTC block “death outcome” prediction markets
- Polymarket contracts on war and leaders spark backlash
- CFTC stance shift fuels fight over federal authority
A group of Senate Democrats is urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to take a hard line against prediction-market contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and similar “death” outcomes, arguing those markets are already barred under federal law.
The group, including Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), has asked the CFTC, which regulates derivative markets, to clarify rules around contracts whose outcomes “promote harm” or resemble gambling on real suffering.
Under the current U.S. Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations, contracts linked to war and terrorism are generally prohibited if offered on registered derivative exchanges, but platforms like Polymarket have operated in a legally gray area by hosting these markets through decentralized or offshore mechanisms.
The senators want CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to “clearly reiterate that the CFTC will categorically prohibit any contract that resolves upon or closely correlates to an individual’s death.”
Artemis II Bet
Of particular concern were recent Polymarket contracts that included whether Artemis II, the upcoming NASA spaceflight mission, would explode during takeoff. The market was pulled after a public backlash.
“Not only did this contract directly correlate with crewmember death, it incentivized the failure of the mission and potential insider sabotage,” the senators complained.
They also highlighted another Polymarket contract on whether Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be removed from power. One trader made around $400K from betting “yes” just hours before President Donald Trump announced the US raid that captured Maduro.
In another example highlighted by the lawmakers, Polymarket settled a contract on whether Russian forces would capture the Ukrainian town of Myrnohad by November 15.
Subsequent media reports indicated that a staff member at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War had edited the group’s battlefield map to show Russian control of a key intersection in the town, despite there being no clear evidence of this. After Polymarket paid out on “yes,” the edit mysteriously disappeared.
The CFTC brought an enforcement action against Polymarket in 2022, ordering it to pay a $1.4 million penalty and wind down markets the agency said violated the Commodity Exchange Act.
CFTC ‘Soft’ Approach
Now, however, Polymarket appears to be positioning itself for a regulated US relaunch, just as its would-be regulator is signaling a softer approach to prediction markets in general. The agency has been increasingly willing to defend the platforms in court against states trying to block them.
It appears that you intend to steer the Commission in a direction that is at odds with the intent of the Commodity Exchange Act, respect for state law, and tribal sovereignty,” the senators wrote.
“The real-world consequences are already evident,” they added. “Prediction market platforms are offering contracts that mirror sportsbook wagers and, in some cases, contracts tied to war and armed conflict. These products evade state and tribal consumer protections, generate no public revenue, and undermine sovereign regulatory regimes.”
