Mallik Tillman scored one of the goals against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Photo: Getty Images
This Fourth of July weekend, if you are looking for a brief time warp back to a moment in your lifetime when America felt almost normal, may I direct you to the last time the U.S. played Belgium in a World Cup. It was 2014, in Brazil — back before the World Cup routinely took place in countries with authoritarian regimes like Qatar, Russia, and, uh, well … Anyway, the U.S. team, under coach Jurgen Klinsmann, had advanced to the Round of 16 to play a Belgium side that was heavily favored and for good reason. The U.S. team was outmaneuvered throughout, giving up a stunning 26 shots on goal, all but two of which were saved by U.S. keeper Tim Howard, who put together one of the greatest World Cup performances of all time. (And certainly the greatest U.S. World Cup performance of all time.) Belgium ended up winning 2-1 — in a game in which they led in expected goals 5.66 to 1.4, which is to say it was a blowout in every way except for Howard’s heroics — and Howard became such a national hero overnight that then-President Obama joked that he was considering replacing then–Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel with Howard. “I know there’s actually a petition on the White House website to make Tim Howard the next secretary of Defense. Chuck Hagel’s got that spot right now, but if there is a vacancy, I’ll think about it,” Obama said with a smile.
You might struggle to find too much about America that’s better right now than it was in 2014, but here’s one thing that definitely is: the United States Men’s National Soccer Team. As they prepare to play Belgium in the Round of 16 again on Monday night, it should be noted that they are no longer underdogs: The game is close to a toss-up. That, right there, is progress. It might be some of the only progress of the past 12 years, but it’s progress nonetheless.
Here’s an FAQ for all you need to know about Monday’s game.
Hey, I get it. The red card given to striker Falorin Balogun against Bosnia-Herzegovina, which put the USMNT a man down the rest of that game and also resulted in Balogun’s automatic suspension for Monday’s contest, was highly suspect — particularly because Balogun’s foul was so obviously accidental. The most annoying thing about the call is that you can make an argument it was the correct one; when you slow it down frame-by-frame, it absolutely does look like “serious foul play,” which is what the video-review crew needs to dole out a red card. The problem, of course, is that sports are not slowed down. They happen really fast, and what looked menacing in super-slow motion looked more happenstance in real time. When you review something by slowing it down, and there are specific criteria about what constitutes a red card, and the play in question meets that criteria, well, sometimes you have to get pedantic about it.
I don’t like it either. But it is not, in fact, something that the refs did specifically to screw the U.S. It was a close call! The victimization is a bit exhausting. They’re refs! Their job is super-hard! The world is uncertain and moving very fast! You know who else was complaining about calls after the game? Bosnian fans! They think they got screwed too! Every fan does! The U.S. will not have Falorin Balogun, one of their best players, for the Round of 16 game. That stinks. But it is perhaps time to move on?
SUNDAY UPDATE: In a pretty stunning — if not entirely unprecedented — reversal, FIFA on Sunday revoked Balogun’s suspension for the Belgium game, despite the USMNT supposedly being unable to appeal it. (President Trump reportedly made a phone call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, who is a big fan.) The U.S. had a coin-flip chance to win the game without Balogun; those odds just very much went up. He has been the best player for the U.S. so far, so this is a massive, massive break. Get excited.
I know, it’s kind of my thing.
It’s about as close to one as you can find; most of the major odds services have the USMNT as a slight favorite. That it’s this close really does speak to how much ground the U.S. has made in the past 14 years. A win in 2014 would have been a major upset. This absolutely would not be.
They’ve got some big names, like Jeremy Doku, Leandro Trossard, Kevin De Bruyne, and Romelu Lukaku. But they are not as good as they were 12 years ago, in large part because those last two players, De Bruyne and Lukaku, are the ones who scored against Howard 12 years ago and they’re now, you know, a lot older. They are a controlled-possession team that, like most European teams, are patient and opportunistic at breaking down a defense. This is a potential problem for the U.S., which has indeed suffered some breakdowns, particularly against Australia and Turkey.
But there’s plenty of room for optimism, too. For all the frustration with the Balogun red card, the USMNT not only didn’t collapse having to play a man down but in fact thrived, leading to the Malik Tillman goal that was one of the best USMNT World Cup shots ever. And it should be said that Belgium, in their win over Senegal in the Round of 32, looked like the worse team for most of the match. They were fortunate that Senegal collapsed late, but they controlled most of that game.
With Balogun out, there is even more pressure on Christian Pulisic. The best player on the U.S. team has not scored yet in this tournament, but he has nonetheless looked electric and, more to the point, healthy. He has been the great American hope since he was a teenager; he’ll never have a more high-profile opportunity than this one. This could be his Tim Howard moment. And he’d probably be an improvement on some current Cabinet members as well.
It’s in Seattle, which might be ideal. Seattle became the unofficial USMNT home field after it roared and shook during the victory over Australia on June 19. This is probably where you want any crucial game to happen; it provides the best home-field advantage the U.S. could ask for. If they keep winning, the U.S. will play in Los Angeles, Dallas, and, of course, the Final in East Rutherford. But Seattle will be the loudest.
Flights to Seattle are not that expensive right now, which is good, because hoo-boy, these tickets. The median price is currently $5,302 with the cheapest ticket around $2,300. You best go for it now, though: The median price for the Final is currently $28,750.
The winner of Spain-Portugal, both of which are among the best, most popular teams in the world. The game would be on Friday, July 10, at 3 p.m. ET, which has serious, almost overwhelming, street-party potential. It would only be the third time the U.S. will have reached the quarterfinals in the World Cup and would unquestionably be the biggest U.S. men’s soccer game in the history of this country. It also, seriously, would be a super-awesome way to spend a Friday afternoon. But they’ve got to win this one first. And you know what? Even without Balogun, I think they will.
